Dynamique des recettes pétrolières aux fluctuations des cours du pétrole et des quantités produites : une application de la décomposition de Shapley au Gabon

Abstract

The investigation of this pape is to examine the effect oil price and quantities produced fluctuation on oil revenues in Gabon from 1976 to 2017. After calculating the change in total oil revenues, an application of the Shapley value decomposition method allowed us to estimate the share of the change in oil revenues due to price changes and the share due to changes in production quantities. The results found show that, the variation of oil revenues due to price changes is greater than that due to changes in quantities produced. In order to mitigate the extreme volatility of oil revenues, we propose to the governments of this state to diversify the economy by investing more with the currencies earned during periods of price increases.